FMI. Crise na China belisca comércio com Portugal

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Portugal tem hoje laços de dependência muito grandes com o país por este se ter tornado num investidor de peso.

Christine Lagarde em Shanghai, China. Foto: EPA/ROLEX DELA PENA

As exportações portuguesas vão ressentir-se relativamente pouco caso a crise na China se agudize e isso conduza a uma forte retração nas importações da grande economia asiática, mostra um estudo com a chancela do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) ontem divulgado. Em todo o caso, além da dimensão comercial, Portugal tem hoje laços de dependência muito grandes com o país por este se ter tornado num investidor de peso. O risco pode ser maior por essa razão.

O trabalho assinado por Alexei Kireyev and Andrei Leonidov, titulado “China’s Imports Slowdown: Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks”, parte de um cenário em que as importações chinesas afundam devido a um “reequilíbrio” do seu modelo de crescimento, mais virado para dentro e não tanto assente na expansão das suas relações económicas com os restantes países do globo.

Uma queda “hipotética” nas compras realizadas pelos chineses ao resto do mundo tem, claro, consequências devastadoras para alguns países, sobretudo os seus vizinhos, e menos para outros, como é o caso de Portugal (ainda assim o impacto é visível em 2017 e 2018) ou mesmo muito pouco nos casos de Grécia e Chipre.

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46 thoughts on “FMI. Crise na China belisca comércio com Portugal”

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